The initial Brexit deadline is here – 29th March 2019.
What a mess! Leavers are unhappy, remainers are unhappy, Europeans who were not eligible to vote are unhappy.
But do not worry – I am not planning to write more on Brexit than this single post. Feel free to skip it altogether if you’ve had enough of this political mess already.
So what is it like to live in Brexitland?
London is a bubble – it is not like the rest of the UK. Yet any economic repercussions may be felt even more here as it is such a stupidly expensive city. It’s difficult to tell who will be hit hardest on a personal level.
Things are changing, this is what I noticed so far.
Besides shiny new passports and settled status applications being accepted, people are worried. Insecurity is a bitch.
People around me are spending less. I haven’t stepped into a fashion or shoe shop in months, because I know that if I do I’ll probably buy something, which I am actively trying to avoid. My English colleagues told me they go to the pub less often. And I’ve noticed that in our (shockingly expensive, American) nursery there are fewer prams parked in the buggy sheds. Coincidence? I don’t think so. I guess parents are sending their kids to nursery fewer hours, or to a childminder (cheaper), saving a few hundred pounds each month.
There are more empty shops in town, and for longer. It’s getting noticeable. My husband, an architect, recently learnt that the area where we live has notoriously expensive retail space. Nonetheless it should be more profitable to fill retail space at a lower rent than not at all, right?
Yet the FT’s headlines say people keep on spending. Well, I guess they don’t around me.
Investments are loosing their lustre. Even the Financial Samurai mentioned the impending bull market as one of the reasons he is going back to work.
- My peer-to-peer ISA hasn’t grown in 2 months. I make £10, I lose 10. I make £25, I lose £25. Despite great profits till January, this investment swing has been going on since the very beginning of February. My educated guess is that people are borrowing money, then pulling the plug because they are tired of struggling and then struggling some more in the future. So I need to rethink my investment plan – but any investments look rather gloomy at the moment.
- Vanguard index funds are stalling.
- My mortgage is on a really low interest rate (1.89%) since we remortgaged 2 months ago. I normally wouldn’t put a lot of my savings in here, but it currently seems to be a solid option.
- Now is a great time to reallocate your investments, something JL Collins of Simple Path to Wealth fame recommends to do once a year – spend time reading and researching, figure out what is important to you now and in the future, then invest accordingly. And never sign up for a new account without checking if you can get a sign up bonus (the current running rate is around £50 / £100)!
I am watching and reading the news less. And I’m not the only one. I normally get my morning debrief courtesy of the Quartz newsletter. All in all, I think this has had a positive effect on me.
People will move to other countries. Some friends and colleagues will move away.
Travelling may get tricky. I’m very glad that I have my European and British passports, I am spared any visa when travelling to and from the European continent. I’m travelling to Budapest early May – I will be able to tell more then.
My British passport cost me £1,700 (incl. language test, life in Britain test, applications for indefinite leave to remain first & citizenship a year after, checking service and biometric imprints) – but what a relief my family and I have it! No concern that we may be forced to leave. For full disclosure, my husband paid the same for his British passport, our daughter’s was “cheap” at only £60 since she was born here and we had been residents here long enough.
If you think that’s a crazy price tag, consider how much someone from Syria would pay for a British passport these days. It’s all relative.
Food prices will go up. Because retailers can raise them, no matter what.
I was living in Italy when the Euro was introduced as an everyday currency on 1st January 1999. Until the 31st December I could buy an espresso for 1,000 Lira, which officially was the equivalent of 0.52 Euros. Yet from 1st January 1999 on the same espresso cost 1 Euro – everywhere!
Prices had doubled for pretty much all foods and beverages, in all shop and bars and restaurants. Most other products and services were also “rounded up”. Wages remained unchanged.
We will be discussing things we had never even thought about. I guess there is some positive in this as learning new things tends to open one’s mind.
If David Cameron ever writes a book, I will launch an campaign to boycott it. A muppet like him does not deserve our money.
A closing word
People are adaptable and can learn from their mistakes. Whatever happens, let’s make the most of it, we are smart and strong!
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